{"id":4344,"date":"2023-08-03T13:17:23","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T10:17:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/terveelukeskus.ee\/?p=4344"},"modified":"2024-04-26T11:30:11","modified_gmt":"2024-04-26T08:30:11","slug":"zilesana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/terveelukeskus.ee\/lv\/zilesana\/","title":{"rendered":"Ko z\u012blnieki tev nest\u0101sta?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Z\u012bl\u0113\u0161ana ir process vai darb\u012bba, kur\u0101, pamatojoties uz z\u012bmi vai par\u0101d\u012bbu, tiek prognoz\u0113ta n\u0101kotne. Z\u012bl\u0113\u0161ana ir praktiz\u0113ta jau gadu t\u016bksto\u0161iem ilgi, un cilv\u0113ki vienm\u0113r ir ilgoju\u0161ies uzzin\u0101t, ko n\u0101kotne mums nes\u012bs. N\u0101kotnes prognoz\u0113\u0161anai bie\u017ei tiek izmantotas da\u017e\u0101das metodes.<\/strong><\/p>\n

SATURA R\u0100D\u012aT\u0100JS
\n<\/span> Vai z\u012blnieks zina, ko dara?<\/a>
\n<\/span> Z\u012bl\u0113\u0161anas plusi un m\u012bnusi<\/a>
\n<\/span> Prognoz\u0113\u0161anas zin\u0101tniskais pamatojums<\/a>
\n<\/span> Izplat\u012btas prognoz\u0113\u0161anas metodes<\/a>
\n<\/span> Prognoz\u0113\u0161anas alternat\u012bvas<\/a><\/div>\n

Vai z\u012blnieks zina, ko dara?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Z\u012blnieks ir persona, kas izsaka prognozes. Vi\u0146iem ir da\u017e\u0101da pieredze, apm\u0101c\u012bba un prognoz\u0113\u0161anas metodes. Lai gan z\u012bl\u0113\u0161ana nav zin\u0101tniski pier\u0101d\u012bta metode n\u0101kotnes notikumu prognoz\u0113\u0161anai, da\u017ei z\u012blnieki var \u0161\u0137ist zino\u0161i un uzticami. Tam ir vair\u0101ki izskaidrojumi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lab\u0101kie z\u012blnieki bie\u017ei vien ir cilv\u0113ki ar sp\u0113c\u012bgu intu\u012bciju un anal\u012btisk\u0101s dom\u0101\u0161anas prasm\u0113m, kuri saprot cilv\u0113kus, vi\u0146u domas, j\u016btas un uzved\u012bbu, k\u0101 ar\u012b sp\u0113j tos interpret\u0113t un analiz\u0113t. Z\u012blnieki var sniegt izpratnes un r\u016bpju saj\u016btu par cilv\u0113ku ba\u017e\u0101m, k\u0101 ar\u012b var sniegt skaidr\u012bbu un vad\u012bbu. Lai z\u012bl\u0113\u0161ana b\u016btu veiksm\u012bga, ir svar\u012bgi, lai z\u012blnieks b\u016btu ticams. Vi\u0146\u0161 var izmantot p\u0101rliecino\u0161u un emocion\u0101lu valodu, lai rad\u012btu iespaidu, ka vi\u0146am piem\u012bt \u012bpa\u0161s talants un zin\u0101\u0161anas. Daudzi z\u012blnieki sav\u0101s prognoz\u0113s izmanto visp\u0101r\u012bgus apgalvojumus, kurus var interpret\u0113t un piel\u0101got da\u017e\u0101d\u0101m situ\u0101cij\u0101m vai cilv\u0113kiem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Neatkar\u012bgi no z\u012blnieka metodes, pamatprocess ir viens un tas pats: noz\u012bmes mekl\u0113\u0161ana nejau\u0161os mode\u013cos un par\u0101d\u012bb\u0101s. Cilv\u0113ki r\u016bp\u012bgi izp\u0113ta z\u012bl\u0113\u0161anas rezult\u0101tus, cen\u0161oties tos izprast. Cilv\u0113ka smadzenes ir \u013coti labas noz\u012bmes atra\u0161an\u0101 vai rad\u012b\u0161an\u0101 pat tad, ja t\u0101s nav, piem\u0113ram, nejau\u0161os mode\u013cos. T\u0101p\u0113c cilv\u0113ki m\u0101ko\u0146os redz sejas, noz\u012bm\u012bgas formas un citus paz\u012bstamus mot\u012bvus, <\/span>Ror\u0161aha tintes traipos<\/span><\/a> un kafijas biezumus. \u0160o par\u0101d\u012bbu sauc par pareidoliju.<\/span><\/p>\n

Visbie\u017e\u0101k cilv\u0113ki v\u0113r\u0161as pie z\u012blniekiem, kuri ir gatavi sadarboties ar z\u012blnieku un mekl\u0113t vad\u012bbu da\u017e\u0101dos savas dz\u012bves aspektos. Vi\u0146i var b\u016bt gatavi tic\u0113t z\u012blnieka v\u0101rdiem un padomiem, kas apstiprina vi\u0146u eso\u0161os uzskatus vai aizspriedumus. Turkl\u0101t cilv\u0113ki var atcer\u0113ties un koncentr\u0113ties tikai uz t\u0101m pare\u0123ojumu da\u013c\u0101m, kas piepild\u0101s, aizmirstot vai ignor\u0113jot t\u0101s, kas nepiepild\u0101s.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pa\u0161piepildo\u0161ie pare\u0123ojumi ir paz\u012bstami ar\u012b k\u0101 paredz\u0113jumi. T\u0101 ir par\u0101d\u012bba, kad cilv\u0113ki s\u0101k r\u012bkoties saska\u0146\u0101 ar vi\u0146iem doto paredz\u0113jumu, kas savuk\u0101rt ietekm\u0113 vi\u0146u uzved\u012bbu un l\u0113mumu pie\u0146em\u0161anu, kas var novest pie paredz\u0113juma piepild\u012b\u0161an\u0101s. T\u0101p\u0113c ir svar\u012bgi apzin\u0101ties savus uzskatus un attieksmi un censties rad\u012bt pozit\u012bvu un atbalsto\u0161u dom\u0101\u0161anas veidu, kas pal\u012bdz sasniegt v\u0113lamos rezult\u0101tus.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u012bl\u0113\u0161anas plusi un m\u012bnusi<\/span><\/h2>\n

Argumenti par labu prognoz\u0113\u0161anai<\/span><\/h3>\n